The Victoria Residential Builders Association held a General Meeting lunch last week featuring keynote speaker Jock Finlayson, Chief Economist with the Independent Contractors and Businesses Association.
While we can all work hard to create the best possible economic outcomes for housing, there are local, provincial, national and international challenges to address. As an economist, Jock ties together the many interconnected pieces of the puzzle including employment, productivity, interest rates, tariffs, population growth, taxes and more.
Builders must be aware of these issues to plan for the year because homebuilding entails a great deal of financial risk. Changes in mortgage rates, costs of materials and labour, permit fees, zoning, etc have a big impact on our business.
As a result, builders’ decisions about how much risk to manage will mostly determine the supply and availability of housing.
While government policies have an enormous impact on housing costs, ultimately, the business decision to proceed with a project is made by builders.
VRBA meetings are an important part of our association’s education mandate which enables builders to make the best possible decisions.
Here is a brief summary of Jock Finlayson’s extensive data and forecast:
- Weak – if any – economic growth for BC (and Canada) in 2025-26;
- Economic outlook is partly tied to how the ‘trade war’ unfolds and the related Canadian policy responses;
- Lower immigration and downturn in population growth will weigh on economy-wide activity in BC 2025-26, aggravated by rising net provincial out-migration;
- BC has an opportunity to advance a significant number of major projects which government should make a top priority;
- BC’s public finances are under immense strain; an extended period of fiscal austerity lies ahead;
- Housing supply/affordability challenges persist…and they won’t be solved through more taxes and regulations.
In January 2026, we will hold our annual Crystal Ball Housing Forecast to determine if economic conditions remain the same or have changed.
Join us if you would like to benefit from this education and expertise. Visit vrba.ca or contact admin@vrba.ca.
This column appears Wednesdays in the Times Colonist.
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