VRBA’s Crystal Ball Housing Forecast was presented last week by:

  • Mike Nugent, 2016 President, Victoria Real Estate Board
  • Steven Hurst, Vice President, Analytics, Yellow Sheet Construction Data
  • Braden Batch, Senior Market Analyst, Canada Mortgage and Housing

Victoria’s housing starts will continue to be strong in 2017, although unlikely to again post the 2,933 we experienced last year.

Also, Victoria is now consistently adding jobs for the first time since the financial crisis in 2009.

Victoria’s challenge is the most “severe imbalance” in BC between supply and demand with active listings down 47%, an historic low.

Langford, Victoria and Saanich represent 77% of new residential construction in the CRD. Supply must be increased in other municipalities to assist affordability

Improved efficiency would also assist as projects are mired in the municipal approval stage.

Victoria’s population growth is being driven mostly by migrants from across Canada. The seniors segment is growing, requiring more homes for couples and singles.

Sales peaked in April and have since cooled but will remain elevated. Construction of new rentals posted a 25 year high.

Mortgage rates are likely to increase but remain at historically low levels.

Prices are expected to rise from $585K in 2016 to as much as $614K this year with more increases in 2018.

This analysis does not take into account the province’s impending regulatory Step Code, likely to increase the cost of new housing by $40K to $100K plus. For more info visit https://www.vrba.ca/step-code-step-public/.

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This column appears Wednesdays in the Times Colonist.